The Road to the Playoffs

[Commish Bub(NYR)]

Playoff status in the EHEC as of 3/4/11. Below are the team's current standing in each conference, games remaining, record against remaining opponents, and any critical games remaining. (I know, I know...they're all critical.) Judge for yourself how things will shake out...

EAST
1. CAR -- 17 left, 18-5-1 (.771), 1 game vs. WSH, 3 vs. TB
2. BOS -- 18 left, 19-12-2 (.606), 1 game vs. PIT, 2 vs. NYR
3. PIT -- 17 left, 24-13-1 (.645), 1 each vs. BOS, NYR, TB, 2 vs. PHI
4. TB -- 18 left, 22-8-1 (.726), 1 vs. PIT, 3 vs. CAR
5. NYR -- 16 left, 24-7-1 (.766), 1 vs. PIT, 2 each vs. PHI, BOS
6. WSH -- 17 left, 19-10-0 (.655), 1 each vs. TB, PHI
7. PHI -- 19 left, 21-14-6 (.585), 1 vs. WSH, 2 vs. BUF
8. BUF -- 19 left, 20-18-7 (.522), 1 vs. MTL, 2 vs. PHI
9. MTL -- 17 left, 16-15-7 (.513), 1 vs. BUF

So if the percentages stay the same, here are the projected final point totals for the top nine in the East:
1. CAR -- 117
2. BOS -- 109
3. NYR -- 109
4. TB -- 115
5. PIT -- 108
6. WSH -- 106
7. PHI -- 98
8. BUF -- 90
9. MTL -- 86


WEST
1. SJ -- 17 left, 21-7-0 (.750), 1 each vs. STL, CGY, 3 vs. PHX
2. STL -- 18 left, 27-9-4 (.725), 1 each vs. SJ, CGY, 3 vs. CBS
3. CGY -- 16 left, 22-9-3 (.662), 1 each vs. CBS, STL, SJ
4. PHX -- 16 left, 23-13-4 (.625), 1 vs. CGY, 3 vs. SJ
5. CBS -- 19 left, 28-10-4 (.714), 1 vs. PHX, 3 vs. STL
6. LA -- 18 left, 22-11-5 (.645), 1 vs. EDM, 3 vs. DAL
7. DAL -- 19 left, 17-14-3 (.544), 1 vs. CHI, 3 vs. LA
8. CHI -- 18 left, 14-8-3 (.620), 1 vs. DAL
9. EDM -- 17 left, 17-9-3 (.638), 1 vs. LA, 6 vs. bottom 3 in West

Projected point totals:
1. SJ -- 115
2. STL -- 112
3. CGY -- 106
4. CBS -- 108
5. PHX -- 109
6. LA -- 101
7. CHI -- 98
8. DAL -- 98
9. EDM -- 98

Of course the fly in this soup is that each team has several games with opponents they haven't yet faced this season. But this is still fun to look at, especially in the West. Take it for what it's worth.

[Virtual Jarmo]

Good stuff Pat. Real good stuff.

I dread a first round matchup with anybody in my conference, let alone Phoenix. Shane Doan's too much of an animal.

I'm only going to get 14 points out of my last 19 games? That seems terrible.

[Jets GM]

Wow, didn't know I had 3 left against CAR. Those are going to be huge games.

[Parker]

I dread a first round matchup with anybody in my conference, let alone Phoenix. Shane Doan's too much of an animal.

He can't do it all by himself though. Despite icing the most talented defense in the league, nobody is really stepping into the role of go-to guy the way Jovanovski did last year. Brygalov was a fucking sieve in the playoffs last year, but I'd almost rather lose with Bryzgalov in net than win with Auld. If Bryzgalov can't win in the playoffs I don't know why I'm paying him fucking $5M a season.

We're in the middle of what is becoming a yearly trend of leading the league for a couple weeks in February, and then collapsing in March. The last ten games have been pretty ugly, and at this rate it's possible we don't even hang on to the 4th seed.

Awesome work as usual, Bub!

[SharksGM]

I think you forgot to multiply the projected win % by 2 points to get the final point total, because 90 points + .750*17 games*2points = 115 points total for me, not 104.

[CapsGM]

So I'll go 5-11-1 for the remainder of the season? I don't deserve to make the playoffs playing like that...

[Commish Bub(NYR)]

Ah, bugger. Corrected the projected totals. There is some movement after all!

[Virtual Jarmo]

Six teams over 100 points in each conference. The West may be like that IRL, but definitely not the East. Crazy stuff.

[Commish Bub(NYR)]

UPDATE:
Since I posted standings/predictions on March 4, let's see how the various teams are doing in the run to the playoffs. Below is a look at each team's record since March 4.

EAST: (including games through 3/15)
1. TB -- 5-1-0 (.833)
2. PIT -- 4-0-1 (.900)
3. BOS -- 3-2-0 (.600)
4. CAR -- 2-1-1 (.625)
5. NYR -- 3-1-0 (.750)
6. WSH -- 4-2-0 (.667)
7. PHI -- 4-1-1 (.750)
8. BUF -- 3-4-0 (.429)
9. MTL -- 1-4-0 (.200)

WEST:
1. SJ -- 5-0-1 (.917)
2. STL -- 3-2-0 (.600)
3. CGY -- 2-3-0 (.400)
4. PHX -- 4-1-0 (.800)
5. CBS -- 3-2-0 (.600)
6. CHI -- 4-0-1 (.900)
7. LA -- 3-3-0 (.500)
8. DAL -- 3-3-0 (.500)
9. NAS -- 3-2-0 (.600)
10. VAN -- 3-3-0 (.500)
11. EDM -- 0-5-0 (.000)

[Virtual Jarmo]

Keeping pace! Thinking I'd be better off to let Femur face PHX. Especially when you consider that if Doan and Nash had to play an entire series together, EHM might explode.

[Montreal Canadiens]

2nd worst team in the league since just after the trade deadline, perfect.

If only they shared these feelings of playing like shit with me before trying to help them out with Hemsky.

[Virtual Jarmo]

2nd worst team in the league since just after the trade deadline, perfect.

If only they shared these feelings of playing like shit with me before trying to help them out with Hemsky.

At least that 2nd rounder you acquired keeps getting better and better!