2018 Offseason

[SharksGM]

The 2017-18 EHEC season is over, with the Calgary Flames as league champions. Congrats to Julien and Greg for making it to the Finals. Now let's all move on and pretend that never happened.

But seriously, here's where we stand. This was the ninth full season of EHEC and next year will be our tenth. Four of us have stuck around since the very beginning (myself, Justin, Mike, and the ghostly Dave G), while Jonathan and Hugo joined before the start of the second season. More importantly, we've had 26/30 GMs log in in the last week. I was going to start with a roll call but I'd say that's kind of redundant since we're almost all here despite the playoffs being over and the (long) offseason just getting under way. That's a pretty good level of activity for a slow-paced free fake hockey game. Having said that, Jer (CBJ) and Ness (PIT) haven't been on in a while and DaveG needs another nudge, so we might need a new recruit or two - hopefully not if pointed reminders are sufficient.

Now, on to the offseason. The first order of business is the draft, which you can read more about here if you haven't already. I haven't made a lot of progress on draftees in the last month, but that will pick up again as the combine is over and the NHL draft is approaching. I aim to finish the draftees in the next couple of weeks so we can start in early July. Last year the draft went from July 9-24 so we're in reasonable shape.

As we announced ages ago, the cap is going up to 60M after this season, and it will stay there for the foreseeable future in order to prevent EHM crashes when salaries get too high. We might look into some other ways to keep things under control, like lowering the faceoff ratings of defensemen to keep their OV down (as far as I can tell, Ryan Ellis is the only full-time D who took a faceoff last season).

The other big pending change this offseason is a new salary system/formula. If you're not aware, the system we use now is a series of formulas in this spreadsheet. These were adapted from brackets that the original commissioner Adam made years ago. For most players they're okay, but there are a lot of mediocre players asking for much more than they're worth, and I think we can all agree that McDavid & Eichel should ask for more than ~$5.2M (sorry Chris).

We don't yet have a specific plan for how to change the system, since the draft comes first. I'm thinking of adjusting the formulas so that they depend less on previous salary and more on a combination of how well players with given ratings (big six + skating) actually perform on average and how much they get on the UFA market. I'm open to fresh ideas here.

Lastly, we never really resolved the goalie issue - ignoring Steve Mason's epic season where he faced 1898 shots in 59 games and kept up NHL-worthy numbers, starters are lucky to put up > .890 sv%. Changing the sliders obviously didn't help much, so I don't see what else we could possibly consider besides bumping all goalies' (starters?) ratings. There are a number of reasons why we wouldn't want to do that so I don't think we'll even put it up for a vote before doing some fastsims to test whether it stands a chance of working.

[The-Boss-GM]

How about making the incoming goalies better?
Some kind of universal boost across the board for all future goaltenders potential/consistency?

[DevilsGM]

For my own evaluation fo what the player is roughly worth I do something along the lines of

Code: Select all

=Averageifs( //Average player ratings who play the same position and have the same rating
	[PlayerSalaries],
	[PlayerPosition],[@PlayerPosition], 
	[PlayerRating],[@PlayerRating]) 

If you don't like relying purely on that value what I've done elsewhere is use it to find a line of best fit by graphing the result. You could do similar giving it a base value like you do now with added bonuses based on performance/other metrics.

Edit: At the moment though, those values would be following pretty closely with what the current formula provides. It'll probably be off due to longterm deals for players who improved, as well as players who haven't gotten off their ELCs.

[DevilsGM]

Also. I have an interesting alternative to a free buyout which sometimes happens if leagues are looking to improve cap flexibility. Instead of a buyout, allow a renegotiation of one player's caphit. That would free up about $1M for every single team, and $30M in cap should grease the wheels on the tradecogs.

I did a preliminary calculation of everyone's estimated cap this coming season (assuming they sign people at the current contract cost) and its pretty ugly and no team is close (by like $15M) to under except for Winnipeg

[RangersGM]

We don't yet have a specific plan for how to change the system, since the draft comes first. I'm thinking of adjusting the formulas so that they depend less on previous salary and more on a combination of how well players with given ratings (big six + skating) actually perform on average and how much they get on the UFA market. I'm open to fresh ideas here.

I've been looking through the old calculator a bit, and I feel like it doesn't do the best job accounting for age, injury, or decline in play*. A couple examples I found:

Marian Hossa spent 3/4 of the season on IR, averaged .5-ppg and 1PIM-pg when he did play, and is 39, yet he comes out at over 5M.

Shane Doan, while not injured this year, is 41, and posted this line:
GP G A PTS +/- PIM
73 11 14 25 2 152
Despite that, he comes out at 1.6M, which is over double his current salary.

*This is definitely in no way related to the Rangers' ownership of the rights to Patrick Sharp.

[Edmonton Mike]

Young elite/top tier players shouldn't have to go through a "bridge contract" to get to the payday they deserve; McDavid and Eichel are perfect example. They are elite today and will remain elite so they should be paid as such today, but Dan covered their case in his post anyways.

And while I agree some bottom pair defensemen/bottom 3 forwards/fringe players are asking for way too much with the current system, there's non-sense at the top also. Case in point would be Alex Pietrangelo/Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Adam Larsson vs Luke Schenn. Now although Schenn only becomes UFA next year, if we compare all 4 defensemen in the current calculator, new salaries look like this:

Alex Pietrangelo $5,8M
Adam Larsson $7,36M
Luke Schenn $7,8M
OIiver Ekman-Larsson $7,92M

I'm guessing the fact that the current calculator relies too much on previous salaries ends up with the ridiculous difference in salary between Pietrangelo and Schenn. But what confuses me the most is why would Schenn end up in the same bracket as elite two-way defensemen like Larsson and OEL. If Larsson and OEL are worth roughly 12% or 13% of the salary cap for the foreseeable future, Schenn definitely isn't.

I think Dan's right and we should switch back to a system that relies more on actual ratings, performance, etc...

[SharksGM]

Also. I have an interesting alternative to a free buyout which sometimes happens if leagues are looking to improve cap flexibility. Instead of a buyout, allow a renegotiation of one player's caphit. That would free up about $1M for every single team, and $30M in cap should grease the wheels on the tradecogs.

I don't really see the justification for that. Our buyout rules are already more generous than the NHL by a long shot - even the top buyout rate of 75% is better than the NHL, where it's 50% but over twice as many years (so no net savings).

I did a preliminary calculation of everyone's estimated cap this coming season (assuming they sign people at the current contract cost) and its pretty ugly and no team is close (by like $15M) to under except for Winnipeg

Huh? I'll be under by ~8M or so, depending on what the Nuge makes, though with a roster of uhhhh questionable competitiveness. More to the point, though, I don't think we want every team to be able to retain all of their free agents every year. To that end:

I've been looking through the old calculator a bit, and I feel like it doesn't do the best job accounting for age, injury, or decline in play

That's definitely true, and it's mostly because I can't really think of a good system for that. Should a 38 year-old prefer 3M x 1 year over 1.8x2M? I think the easiest good solution is to err on the side of veteran players asking for slightly more than they're worth and going to UFA where The Market (TM) will determine their true value.

I'm guessing the fact that the current calculator relies too much on previous salaries ends up with the ridiculous difference in salary between Pietrangelo and Schenn. But what confuses me the most is why would Schenn end up in the same bracket as elite two-way defensemen like Larsson and OEL. If Larsson and OEL are worth roughly 12% or 13% of the salary cap for the foreseeable future, Schenn definitely isn't.

You missed the 0.8x multiplier on Schenn's salary. He'd be due 5.68M on the current system, and he has a lower OV rating than Pietrangelo so yes, the difference is entirely in Pietrangelo's much lower current salary. I'm leaning towards dropping that entirely as it doesn't really make sense for underpaid players to want to continue to be underpaid.

[Edmonton Mike]

You missed the 0.8x multiplier on Schenn's salary. He'd be due 5.68M on the current system

Don't mean to hijack this thread into Calculator 101, but what is this 0.8x multiplier thing again? Cause pretty much everybody I've been in trade talks with for Schenn had a problem with his ridiculous payday coming up next year, without me even bringing it up. Can't seem to find anything about this in the seach tool.

On a different note -and this could have been a thread of its own- I just wanted to thank you for the unreal job you're doing with this league. When I first got here as GM of the St.Louis Blues, before the 2010-2011 season, Adam and the original GM's had already made this league the best I had seen and it's only gotten better since. Good job boss!

[RangersGM]

On a different note -and this could have been a thread of its own- I just wanted to thank you for the unreal job you're doing with this league. When I first got here as GM of the St.Louis Blues, before the 2010-2011 season, Adam and the original GM's had already made this league the best I had seen and it's only gotten better since. Good job boss!

Ditto to this. The effort you guys put into this is unreal, not to mention the level of patience and willingness to help me, the dumb new guy.

That's definitely true, and it's mostly because I can't really think of a good system for that. Should a 38 year-old prefer 3M x 1 year over 1.8x2M? I think the easiest good solution is to err on the side of veteran players asking for slightly more than they're worth and going to UFA where The Market (TM) will determine their true value.

I was thinking something along the lines of the Goalie table.
You take the base salary that gets spit out of the contract calculator, and then apply it to the table.

Have one modifier based on age, i.e. a larger reduction for every year older than say, 34, and another one based on time injured, i.e. 50 days, 75, 100, etc. (Starting at a fairly significant length of time)

Now, that would obviously need some sort of injury tracking. Not sure how feasible that is, but I would be happy to do it if necessary.

[Bruins_GM]

Just so we're all on the same page, we should be looking at column AL (NEW $(M)) for the cap figures for next season, correct?

[DevilsGM]

I don't really see the justification for that. Our buyout rules are already more generous than the NHL by a long shot - even the top buyout rate of 75% is better than the NHL, where it's 50% but over twice as many years (so no net savings).

Are you stating that buyout penalties are only for as long as the deal not twice as long?

I did a preliminary calculation of everyone's estimated cap this coming season (assuming they sign people at the current contract cost) and its pretty ugly and no team is close (by like $15M) to under except for Winnipeg

Huh? I'll be under by ~8M or so, depending on what the Nuge makes, though with a roster of uhhhh questionable competitiveness. More to the point, though, I don't think we want every team to be able to retain all of their free agents every year. To that end:

Yeah, I have you at 14 contracts who can't be simply buried, whose value sums to 53.6M, so 6.4M space approximately. The calculation I mentioned was assuming people sign players to what they are asking for.

[RangersGM]

Just so we're all on the same page, we should be looking at column AL (NEW $(M)) for the cap figures for next season, correct?

That's what I've been using.

[Edmonton Mike]

Are you stating that buyout penalties are only for as long as the deal not twice as long?

Correct.

[DevilsGM]

That very important piece of information should be added to the buyout page haha

[IslandersGM]

The other big pending change this offseason is a new salary system/formula. If you're not aware, the system we use now is a series of formulas in this spreadsheet. These were adapted from brackets that the original commissioner Adam made years ago. For most players they're okay, but there are a lot of mediocre players asking for much more than they're worth, and I think we can all agree that McDavid & Eichel should ask for more than ~$5.2M (sorry Chris).

We don't yet have a specific plan for how to change the system, since the draft comes first.

Thats fine.. but as I try to work on the roster I'll need to know before the Draft what's going on. I can't make any moves if I don't know what things are going to cost.

[SharksGM]

You missed the 0.8x multiplier on Schenn's salary. He'd be due 5.68M on the current system

Don't mean to hijack this thread into Calculator 101, but what is this 0.8x multiplier thing again? Cause pretty much everybody I've been in trade talks with for Schenn had a problem with his ridiculous payday coming up next year, without me even bringing it up. Can't seem to find anything about this in the seach tool.

It's for the 20% salary rollback we had last season. I didn't paste it into the NEW column all the way down the spreadsheet, I guess.

On a different note -and this could have been a thread of its own- I just wanted to thank you for the unreal job you're doing with this league. When I first got here as GM of the St.Louis Blues, before the 2010-2011 season, Adam and the original GM's had already made this league the best I had seen and it's only gotten better since. Good job boss!

Thanks, pal.

[SharksGM]

That very important piece of information should be added to the buyout page haha

It's there now.

Thats fine.. but as I try to work on the roster I'll need to know before the Draft what's going on. I can't make any moves if I don't know what things are going to cost.

You'll know as soon as everyone else does. It's not really unrealistic either - while NHL teams do sometimes extend players well before UFA, lots of negotiations go right down to the wire too.

[IslandersGM]

You'll know as soon as everyone else does. It's not really unrealistic either - while NHL teams do sometimes extend players well before UFA, lots of negotiations go right down to the wire too.

Actually it is unrealistic. If If you are telling me that yes the cap is going up but the formula isn't correct then we need to wait. I'm fielding offers on Ovechkin but I want to know what the costs will be. I can't move him if the cost of other players will rise so much that I can't keep what I get in return.


I say run with this formula now. And come out with the adjusted one for next year with it's release just before the trade deadline or start of the playoffs so everyone knows where they will be. We don't resign players mid year because we run that as an off season thing to keep managers busy and interested. It's too late to come out with an adjusted number.

[SharksGM]

File updated with most of the recent trades. I think all of the GMO pages are working as intended, other than the lines one. Please don't be such a keener as to submit lines in the offseason.

I got up to 65 draftees: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =595841125

I'll aim for ~80 done by tomorrow and hopefully everyone within a week or two, then we can move on to starting the draft and getting free agency sorted. Let me tell you how sick I am of undersized puck-moving defensemen who'll never amount to anything.

[TorontoGM]

Keep up the good work!

Despite not having a first rounder, I am looking forward to the draft.

[IslandersGM]

So do we have a decision or should I just put an offer in on McDavid that is fair? It's a buggar that I can't make a trade and I've got guys calling saying make a decision but I won't till I know what the costs are. Some of the guys coming back are RFAs right away too so I need to know. So does everyone else. I appreciate all that goes in to running this league. It's the best I've been in since SNIFL (Stupidly Named Internet Football League) (soccer on ESMS a text based game).

[SharksGM]

So do we have a decision or should I just put an offer in on McDavid that is fair? It's a buggar that I can't make a trade and I've got guys calling saying make a decision but I won't till I know what the costs are. Some of the guys coming back are RFAs right away too so I need to know. So does everyone else. I appreciate all that goes in to running this league. It's the best I've been in since SNIFL (Stupidly Named Internet Football League) (soccer on ESMS a text based game).

No, you can't put RFA offers before everyone else. We're not even starting free agency (including RFAs) until the draft is done.

As for the new system, I'm working on it. I have a new preliminary formula but I'm not satisfied with it yet. I'll look into it more this week. It's hard to find a single number to summarize how much a player is worth and I may need to enter something different for D vs forwards. However, I don't think any reasonable system would pay McDavid or Eichel much less than the max (which is 9M right now).

[SharksGM]

The draftees are all in the file now. We'll announce the official start of the draft later today - it will be no sooner than Friday and no later than next Monday.

The cap calculator has been updated with a new formula. See here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... fJnsC2NDRo

The relevant columns are RFA/UFA (AH/AI). These are compared with the (soon-to-be-old) numbers in the New-Old (AK) column. The main difference is that top-end players will be paid more on average, because new salaries do not depend on old salaries; the only exception is that RFAs will not accept pay cuts, and UFAs will accept a maximum of a 10% pay cut. Many low-to-mid range players will get slightly less than before, making it somewhat easier to retain depth players.

We are also contemplating changes to the qualifying offer system but haven't settled on anything yet. We'll announce final contract rules ASAP.

Lastly, ARZ, CBS and PIT are now open and looking for new GMs. If you know any good candidates, ask them to apply. PIT is somewhat more important to fill since they have the #8 and #30 picks. ARZ has the #2 pick but that is pretty much a no-brainer.

[DevilsGM]

I wouldn't say #2 is a no brainer but alright.

[IslandersGM]

so how does the max of 9M suddenly become over 10M? Is he going to need to be paid extra to stay 8 years?

[Bernyhawks]

The draftees are all in the file now. We'll announce the official start of the draft later today - it will be no sooner than Friday and no later than next Monday.

The cap calculator has been updated with a new formula. See here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... fJnsC2NDRo

The relevant columns are RFA/UFA (AH/AI). These are compared with the (soon-to-be-old) numbers in the New-Old (AK) column. The main difference is that top-end players will be paid more on average, because new salaries do not depend on old salaries; the only exception is that RFAs will not accept pay cuts, and UFAs will accept a maximum of a 10% pay cut. Many low-to-mid range players will get slightly less than before, making it somewhat easier to retain depth players.

We are also contemplating changes to the qualifying offer system but haven't settled on anything yet. We'll announce final contract rules ASAP.

Lastly, ARZ, CBS and PIT are now open and looking for new GMs. If you know any good candidates, ask them to apply. PIT is somewhat more important to fill since they have the #8 and #30 picks. ARZ has the #2 pick but that is pretty much a no-brainer.

I would love to run my old boys in PIT for the off-season if that helps!

[SharksGM]

so how does the max of 9M suddenly become over 10M? Is he going to need to be paid extra to stay 8 years?

The max isn't changing.

[DevilsGM]

Technically speaking shouldn't RFA's also not accept anything below a qualifying offer?

[RangersGM]

so how does the max of 9M suddenly become over 10M? Is he going to need to be paid extra to stay 8 years?

The max isn't changing.

I might be wrong, but I think the question here is:
A. How much does McDavid need to be paid, particularly for a multi year deal, given that his calculator value is higher than the max, (10.2M vs 9M) and
B. Why is his contract coming out at a significantly higher cost than the max?

[SharksGM]

Technically speaking shouldn't RFA's also not accept anything below a qualifying offer?

That isn't a rule anywhere, even in the NHL. RFAs occasionally take pay cuts in the NHL. Having said that, if you don't qualify someone or pay their calculator minimum you'll just lose their rights.

I might be wrong, but I think the question here is:
A. How much does McDavid need to be paid, particularly for a multi year deal, given that his calculator value is higher than the max, (10.2M vs 9M) and
B. Why is his contract coming out at a significantly higher cost than the max?

Nobody can make more than the max, otherwise it wouldn't be a max. As for B, it's because he's really good. The previous calculator wasn't capped at 9M either (Kovalchuk was due just over 9), but there was no bonus for anything over 85OV so it was harder to get much over the max.

[RangersGM]

I might be wrong, but I think the question here is:
A. How much does McDavid need to be paid, particularly for a multi year deal, given that his calculator value is higher than the max, (10.2M vs 9M) and
B. Why is his contract coming out at a significantly higher cost than the max?

Nobody can make more than the max, otherwise it wouldn't be a max. As for B, it's because he's really good. The previous calculator wasn't capped at 9M either (Kovalchuk was due just over 9), but there was no bonus for anything over 85OV so it was harder to get much over the max.

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't around for this stuff last year, so I'm a little fuzzy on the minutiae.