2019-20 Projections

[Vik (Habs)]

So I spent more time than I ought to've figuring out some rather rough projections for salaries for this season. Some teams that are over the cap or close to it could be stashing some non-waiver eligible players who get included in the projections and some good players who probably should get included don't so, obviously, take everything with a grain of salt.


Cont = non-junior aged contracts
Salaries = waiver eligible players making more than 800k + non-waiver eligible players making more than 2M + buyout penalties + 600k for each skater under 22 included - 800k for each skater over 22 included

Age for junior/waiver eligibility calculated for October 1st.


Not included:
Unprocessed trades
LTIR
Errors in file

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	Team	Cont	Salaries	
	NYR	41	64232000	
	ANA	49	63176000	
	DAL	50	62610000	
	BUF	43	62235000	
	CAR	51	60820000	
	MIN	38	59971000	
	TOR	42	59850000	
	L.A	42	59830000	
	NSH	47	59544000	
	PIT	47	58570000	

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	OTT	47	58185000	
	MTL	46	57550000	
	VAN	48	57126000	
	N.J	37	57056000	
	CHI	29	56940000	
	WSH	46	56904000	
	PHI	41	56720000	
	COL	47	56690000	
	NYI	45	56504000	
	FLA	40	56302000	

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	T.B	50	56150000	
	EDM	44	56043000	
	CBJ	46	54710000	
	S.J	47	54700000	
	WPG	42	54460000	
	DET	42	52690000	
	ARI	31	52480000	
	STL	44	51750000	
	CGY	53	51120000	
	BOS	46	48938000	

[Vik (Habs)]

And now Ottawa takes the lead with potentially 55 contracts.

[SensGM]

And now Ottawa takes the lead with potentially 55 contracts.

[Vik (Habs)]

The way Buffalo's going, it's looking like Brett Howden will have to be an AHLer this year.

[Tondycek(BUF GM)]

Maybeeeee

[Dallas Stars GM]

Adam Erne should be 2 years.
Zach Nastasiuk should be 1 year (contract). Currently listed as 0 years.
Thanks.

[IslandersGM]

is that projected salary with the Werenski LTIR? I know he's got a bit of time out of the game yet. I'll keep him up this time vs sending him to the farm.

[Vik (Habs)]

is that projected salary with the Werenski LTIR? I know he's got a bit of time out of the game yet. I'll keep him up this time vs sending him to the farm.

Haven't looked at LTIR. Teams have to actually play a game to figure out what the LTIR would be so can't really factor it in until that happens. You'd be better off sending him down if he is still injured to start the season (game shows him as having 1 month left so I'm not sure he'll miss any time).

[Vik (Habs)]

Updated for the recent file.

Looks like everyone should be able to stay cap compliant, though a couple cruel cuts may be necessary.
Everyone can stay under the contract limit by returning some youngsters to juniors.
On the other end of the spectrum, Chicago and Arizona are both in need of some farmers to fill out the ranks.

[IslandersGM]

how we all looking now Vik?

[Vik (Habs)]

how we all looking now Vik?

Updated initial post.

• Calgary is at 53 contracts. With Suzuki, it's 54.

• Carolina is at 51 contracts

• Rangers current roster = 61.782M. Unless someone helps them via waivers, going to need to demote a Kapanen or a Nylander or someone.

• Anaheim current roster = 65.496M. Unless someone claims Michalek, have to use a buyout or demote Bellows and someone else.

• Dallas is fine so long as they don't promote one of their current stashed players.

• Buffalo current roster = 62.935M. Either need some help from waivers or will have to demote Brett Howden.

• Carolina current roster = 60.82M. They're at 23 skaters so they can demote somebody and be fine (though it's looking like they need a buyout which would obviously affect that).

Could be other issues that don't show in these rough projections. First file after waiver day, I'll run the regular numbers instead of my rough projections.

[Vik (Habs)]

• Buffalo current roster = 62.935M. Either need some help from waivers or will have to demote Brett Howden.

Complication to this that doesn't really affect things but I wanted to note - Kendall McFaull is still out from a long-term injury but has been demoted to the AHL. So if things stay as they are to start the season, I guess they get 700k (1.5M salary - 800k for being in the AHL) in LTIR relief?

[Vik (Habs)]

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TEAM     GP     TODAY         TO DATE       PENALTIES    LTIR         PROJECTED     CONTRACTS
ANA      0      65496000      0             0            0            65496000      56
CBJ      0      60860000      0             800000       3200000      60860000      49
BOS      0      68158000      0             0            0            68158000      46
BUF      0      62235000      0             2610000      700000       62235000      46
CGY      0      58600000      0             300000       0            58600000      51
CAR      0      60850000      0             0            0            60850000      50
CHI      0      58570000      0             0            0            58570000      28
COL      0      51650000      0             0            0            51650000      46
WPG      0      62020000      0             0            0            62020000      45
DAL      0      59720000      0             900000       0            59720000      49

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DET      0      60990000      0             0            0            60990000      44
EDM      0      59443000      0             503000       0            59443000      44
FLA      0      62292000      0             0            0            62292000      41
L.A      0      62770000      0             0            0            62770000      44
MIN      0      64161000      0             0            0            64161000      44
MTL      0      61790000      0             0            0            61790000      44
NYI      0      54824000      0             0            0            54824000      45
NYR      0      59332000      0             0            0            59332000      43
NSH      0      59894000      0             0            0            59894000      48
N.J      0      58786000      0             0            0            58786000      39

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OTT      0      59449000      0             0            0            59449000      49
PHI      0      60240000      0             0            0            60240000      43
ARI      0      56184000      0             0            0            56184000      33
PIT      0      59330000      0             0            0            59330000      48
S.J      0      60000000      0             0            3080000      60000000      49
STL      0      66880000      0             0            0            66880000      49
T.B      0      56494000      0             0            0            56494000      48
TOR      0      60340000      0             0            5500000      60340000      45
VAN      0      59746000      0             0            1446000      59746000      53
WSH      0      61054000      0             1584000      0            61054000      49

I've included projected LTIR relief in this (and assumed Buffalo gets 700k for McFaull).


Underagers:

• Anaheim currently has 6. None are listed in the underager thread so Dan may be deciding who gets to stick around.

• Buffalo has 3. Based on the underager thread, Jack Drury will be the odd man out.

• The Rangers have 4, none in thread.

• Vancouver has 3, Oscar Back's the odd man out.

Roster Minimum:

• Minnesota's the only team currently under, need one call up.

Contract Limit:

• Anaheim's got 6 extra. Sending all of their underagers back to juniors would fix that.

• Calgary's at 51.

• Vancouver's at 53, will be 52 if Back gets sent away.

Cap:

• The following all have extra bodies around and are probably fine once they cut down:
  • Columbus
  • Boston
  • Winnipeg
  • Detroit
  • Florida
  • Montreal
  • St. Louis
  • Toronto
  • Washington

• The following I mentioned in my previous post:
  • Anaheim
  • Buffalo
  • Carolina
  • NY Rangers

• Which leaves:
  • Los Angeles - looks like they'll have to demote one of their pretty waiver ineligible folks.
  • Minnesota - seem to be in the same position as LA.
  • Philadelphia - I assume Shane Pinto isn't supposed to stick around, moving him out would do the trick.

[Dallas Stars GM]

Do I have 49 contracts count ? I have also Alex Vlasic signed to ELC, but sent back to Juniors.
So does he count to my contract count or not?
Thanks Vik

[SensGM]

So does he count to my contract count or not?

Yes.

« 3. Organizations are limited to 50 contracts, including AHL players and signed prospects. »

[Dallas Stars GM]

Contract Limit:
Anaheim's got 6 extra. Sending all of their underagers back to juniors would fix that.

So what does this mean???
They have 56 contracts.
How come sending his players to juniors decrease his limit?

[SensGM]

Contract Limit:
Anaheim's got 6 extra. Sending all of their underagers back to juniors would fix that.

So what does this mean???
They have 56 contracts.
How come sending his players to juniors decrease his limit?

Well, according to the rulebook, It wouldn't fix that... unless I misunderstand the rulebook.

[Dallas Stars GM]

Well, according to the rulebook, It wouldn't fix that... unless I misunderstand the rulebook.

Yeah, same here. It doesn't makes sense at all.

[SharksGM]

So does he count to my contract count or not?

Yes.

« 3. Organizations are limited to 50 contracts, including AHL players and signed prospects. »

The rulebook was out of date. We changed that rule two seasons ago. Junior players don't count toward the contract limit.

[Vik (Habs)]

Code: Select all

TEAM     GP     TODAY         TO DATE       PENALTIES    LTIR         PROJECTED     CONTRACTS
ANA      0      65496000      0             0            0            65496000      56
CBJ      0      58260000      0             800000       1460000      58260000      50
BOS      0      53608000      0             0            0            53608000      48
BUF      0      59485000      0             2610000      185000       59485000      46
CGY      0      57800000      0             300000       0            57800000      50
CAR      0      60850000      0             0            0            60850000      50
CHI      0      58570000      0             0            0            58570000      28
COL      0      53410000      0             0            0            53410000      47
WPG      0      56460000      0             0            0            56460000      45
DAL      0      59720000      0             900000       0            59720000      49

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DET      0      60990000      0             0            0            60990000      44
EDM      0      59443000      0             503000       0            59443000      45
FLA      0      62292000      0             0            0            62292000      41
L.A      0      63370000      0             0            0            63370000      45
MIN      0      64161000      0             0            0            64161000      44
MTL      0      63950000      0             0            0            63950000      48
NYI      0      54824000      0             0            0            54824000      44
NYR      0      60582000      0             0            0            60582000      43
NSH      0      59894000      0             0            0            59894000      47
N.J      0      58058000      0             1312000      0            58058000      45

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OTT      0      58849000      0             0            0            58849000      49
PHI      0      60240000      0             0            0            60240000      43
ARI      0      56184000      0             0            0            56184000      33
PIT      0      59330000      0             0            0            59330000      48
S.J      0      60000000      0             0            3080000      60000000      48
STL      0      59730000      0             0            0            59730000      49
T.B      0      56494000      0             0            0            56494000      48
TOR      0      60000000      0             0            5500000      60000000      45
VAN      0      60000000      0             600000       1446000      60000000      50
WSH      0      59904000      0             1584000      0            59904000      49

Issues from previous post still not fixed...

I've included projected LTIR relief in this (and assumed Buffalo gets 700k for McFaull).


Underagers:

• Anaheim currently has 6. None are listed in the underager thread so Dan may be deciding who gets to stick around.

• Buffalo has 3. Based on the underager thread, Jack Drury will be the odd man out.

• The Rangers have 4, none in thread.

Roster Minimum:

• Minnesota's the only team currently under, need one call up.

Contract Limit:

• Anaheim's got 6 extra. Sending all of their underagers back to juniors would fix that.

Cap:

• The following all have extra bodies around and are probably fine once they cut down:
  • Detroit
  • Florida
  • Montreal

• The following I mentioned in my previous post:
  • Anaheim
  • Carolina
  • NY Rangers

• Which leaves:
  • Los Angeles - looks like they'll have to demote one of their pretty waiver ineligible folks.
  • Minnesota - seem to be in the same position as LA.
  • Philadelphia - I assume Shane Pinto isn't supposed to stick around, moving him out would do the trick.

Couple new issues...

Roster Minimum:

• Buffalo's at 21, need a callup.

• Winnipeg's at 20, need two more.

[Vik (Habs)]

Last one before the start of the season.

Code: Select all

TEAM     GP     TODAY         TO DATE       PENALTIES    LTIR         PROJECTED     CONTRACTS
ANA      0      65496000      0             0            0            65496000      56
CBJ      0      58260000      0             800000       1460000      58260000      50
BOS      0      53608000      0             0            0            53608000      48
BUF      0      59485000      0             2610000      185000       59485000      46
CGY      0      57800000      0             300000       0            57800000      50
CAR      0      60850000      0             0            0            60850000      50
CHI      0      58570000      0             0            0            58570000      28
COL      0      51610000      0             0            0            51610000      47
WPG      0      57660000      0             0            0            57660000      45
DAL      0      59720000      0             900000       0            59720000      49

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DET      0      56190000      0             0            0            56190000      45
EDM      0      59443000      0             503000       0            59443000      45
FLA      0      62292000      0             0            0            62292000      41
L.A      0      63370000      0             0            0            63370000      45
MIN      0      64161000      0             0            0            64161000      44
MTL      0      59350000      0             0            0            59350000      48
NYI      0      54824000      0             0            0            54824000      44
NYR      0      60582000      0             0            0            60582000      43
NSH      0      59894000      0             0            0            59894000      47
N.J      0      58058000      0             1312000      0            58058000      45

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OTT      0      58849000      0             0            0            58849000      49
PHI      0      59560000      0             0            0            59560000      43
ARI      0      56184000      0             0            0            56184000      33
PIT      0      59330000      0             0            0            59330000      48
S.J      0      59370000      0             0            2810000      59370000      48
STL      0      59730000      0             0            0            59730000      49
T.B      0      56494000      0             0            0            56494000      48
TOR      0      60000000      0             0            5500000      60000000      45
VAN      0      60000000      0             600000       1700000      60000000      50
WSH      0      59904000      0             1584000      0            59904000      49

• Anaheim
  • Issues
    • Extra contracts (down to 51 now)
    • Extra underagers (down to 3 now)
    • Over cap
  • Potential Fix
    • Demote Kieffer Bellows
    • Demote Roope Hintz or Mitchell Vande Sompel
    • Promote Milan Michalek
    • Send Xavier Bouchard back to juniors

• Buffalo
  • Issues
    • Extra underager
    • Below roster minimum
  • Potential Fix
    • Promote Jack Drury

• Carolina
  • Issues
    • Over cap
  • Potential Fix
    • Demote Shane Eiserman or Nicolas Roy

• Florida
  • Issues
    • Over cap
  • Potential Fix
    • Get down to 22 skaters (currently at 26)

• Los Angeles
  • Issues
    • Over cap
  • Potential Fix
    • Demote Kyle Connor

• Minnesota
  • Issues
    • Over cap
    • Below roster minimum
  • Potential Fix
    • Promote two minimum salary players
    • Demote Mitchell Mattson

• NY Rangers
  • Issues
    • Extra underagers
    • Over cap
  • Potential fix
    • Send Liam Kirk back to juniors
    • Promote Allan McShane
    • Demote William Nylander or Kasperi Kapanen